Did andy biggs lose election7/2/2023 ![]() Special elections have received significant focus from the media and the public in recent years. And even if a majority party shift doesn’t happen, a district could still replace a moderate departing representative with an extremist, or vice versa. ![]() What this means is that there are real possibilities for the size of a party’s majority to shrink, or grow, between election years. These elections usually happen within a few months of the vacancy. Senate vacancies are often – though not always – filled through an appointment by the governor of that state, the Constitution mandates that House vacancies be filled by special elections scheduled by the governor. This potentially leaves party leaders captive to some particular interest, either in their party or in the opposition party. The number of deaths that regularly occur among members is more than sufficient to change how the majority party functions in a closely contested Congress like this one. However, at least one member – and often more than one – has died in all but one Congress in the past 70 years. Resignation is the most common reason for departure in recent Congresses. Based on my analysis, there are usually at least a handful of vacancies per two-year congressional cycle. House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican from Ohio, resigned after facing threats of being ousted from leadership in 2015.Īnd although the 117th was a banner Congress for vacancies, the historical data demonstrates that they happen all the time. Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican, did in 2014. Others cut short their current term, leaving Congress after losing their primaries, as Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb., who was convicted in 2022 for lying to the FBI about illegal campaign contributions. ![]() Some members were forced to resign because of scandal, like Rep. ![]() High-profile vacancies in recent history were due to other causes. A number of these vacancies occurred in the first days of the 117th, when several Democratic House members, including Cedric Richmond of Louisiana and Marcia Fudge of Ohio, took positions in the new Biden administration. Don Young, R-Alaska, the longest-serving House member at the time. This was partly because of six member deaths, including Rep. 3, 2023, set a modern record with 15 vacancies, a rate unmatched going back to the 1950s. Drew Angerer/Getty Images How do vacancies occur? Don Young, R-Alaska, as he lies in state in Statuary Hall at the U.S. Visitors file past the flag-draped casket of Rep. With such a small advantage, the potential effect of this replacement is huge – not just for McCarthy, but for Congress as a whole, and the American people, whose lives are affected by legislation passed by Congress. ![]() Will that person be replaced with another moderate? A Trump-aligned Republican? A Democrat? Imagine, for example, that a moderate Republican member dies or resigns in the next few months. But each congressional session, some members depart Congress early, leaving vacancies that can complicate party leaders’ efforts to placate their competing factions or blocs. These vacancies happen with regularity, and could have major impacts on the Republicans’ legislative agenda over the next two years.Ī slim majority means that the Republican leadership can’t afford to lose support from even small groups of members within their party. This is because of seat vacancies caused by the early departures of members of Congress. The GOP’s slim majority may actually get slimmer. Slim margins might make for dramatic television, but they create legislative and institutional uncertainty that has very real consequences for how Congress is run and how policy gets made.īecause the GOP’s 10-seat House majority is so small, McCarthy has had to placate the moderate wing, the right wing and the far-right wing of his conference – all at the same time – in his quest for the speaker’s gavel. Additional balloting is expected in the race for speaker. 3, 2023 to become speaker of the House, McCarthy failed to get the required number of votes. The arm-twisting, dealmaking and vote hunting around Kevin McCarthy’s quest to be named House speaker have put on full display the fact that razor-thin majorities in both the House and the Senate are becoming a fact of life at the federal level. GOP House leader Kevin McCarthy wants to be speaker of the House. ![]()
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